Recent Posts from Latter-day Saint Blogs Tagged "sickness"http://www.NothingWavering.orgen-usSun, 31 May 2020 21:07:00 -0700Sun, 31 May 2020 21:07:00 -0700http://blogs.law.harvard.edu/tech/rssNothingWavering.org Application Frameworkeditor@nothingwavering.org (Administrator)admin@nothingwavering.org (NothingWavering.org Administrator)Sun, 31 May 2020 21:07:00 -0700tag:nothingwavering.org,2009-01-12:_70712Mormanity: Fear and Trembling and Sickness Unto 47 Million Deaths: Basic Math and the Pandemic Panichttps://mormanity.blogspot.com/2020/05/fear-and-trembling-and-sickness-unto-47.htmlnoreply@nothingwavering.org (No Reply)Jeff LindsayA well-educated friend with a graduate degree from an outstanding university sent me this video from Dr. Emily Porter of Austin, Texas and felt it was enlightening. She artfully and eloquently explains why we need lockdowns to cope with COVID-19 or millions will die. It has been received with great enthusiasm and numerous supportive comments. It's viewed as credible, authoritative, and compelling. It's also a classic example of how a failure to be careful with basic math can lead to terrible conclusions that can drive all of us to despair (for various reasons). Sadly, this video has served to exacerbate unnecessary fear and encourage trust in some policies that may do more harm than good. Regardless of the merits of lockdowns, understanding the nature of the mistakes and tactics in this video, as well intended as it may be, can help us stand up to more bad science from others for this or other crises.

I'll break things down by looking at key portions of this video, marked by time. The video was posted to Youtube March 22, 2020, and thus data cited may be out of date, but some of the errors are timeless, or rather, happen all the time, even in discussions from experts that we are told to trust.




Setting:  Some credentials for the speaker, Dr. Emily Porter, are established verbally and visually. She's a doctor, she's wearing a white laboratory coat, she has a stethoscope around her neck, and tells us she has a sister, Katie Porter, who got elected to Congress and is apparently pretty popular. She seems like a passionate, intelligent, eloquent, and sincerely concerned medical doctor, and I'm sorry that there are some gaping flaws that need to be pointed out. As I explain below, these may not be her fault, and I don't want to criticize her personally. I suggest it's the soundness of the widespread and popular message she is sharing that needs to be considered.

Video @ 0:55 to 1:20: "CDC is estimating that 40-70% of [America's 331 million people] will get infected" with COVID-19. So, she says, let's say 150 million, on the lower end, will be infected. For the infected population, "80% will be just fine. 20% will need hospitalization."

Response: 20% of those infected need to be hospitalized? That's a remarkably high number. Even when we didn't know about all the asymptomatic people that don't even feel sick (about 35% of those infected), such a high hospitalization rate was not on the table, as far as I can recall. That rate only applies to the very old. Below is hospitalization rate data from the CDC, and while it was published in April less than a month after Porter's presentation, the knowledge of the hospitalization rate in March should not have been wildly off. The highest hospitalization rate listed is 17%, and it's for those over 85 years of age. Not an average of 20% for everyone!



Porter's error (if it's even hers) is probably unintentional, but it is a critical one that blows the threat way out of proportion. Unfortunately, the nature of this questionable blunder is very similar to another even more egregious error made minutes later.

For the 150 million who might become infected, she does not say how long this will take. For a virus to sweep through a population until herd immunity is established can take years or at least many months. Part of the fearful impact to come in this video is the implicit notion that we could have a huge population of sick people all at once. This needs more clarity.

Video @ 1:20 to 1:35: She warns that Italian hospitals are being overwhelmed by the virus, and we have even fewer hospital beds per capita than Italy, so we're in big trouble.

Response: Reasonable, but this neglects the vast differences in our populations, for Italy has a much older population with many more elderly people susceptible to the virus. Not exactly a fair comparison. (As we've seen since this video was made, our hospitals in almost every state were not overwhelmed, even in -- or especially in -- states like South Dakota that did not impose harsh lockdowns.)

Video @ 1:20 to 1:35:"5 to 10% of the 150 million that get infected will need vents."

Response: This huge number requires the incorrect assumption that 20% of those infected will need hospitalization. New York's early experience had about 1/3 of their hospitalized COVID patients on ventilators, so if 20% hospitalization were reasonable, then 5-10% on ventilators would make sense. OK. 

Video @ 1:50 to 1:58: "5% of 150 million people is 7.5 million vents needed in America." The caption drives this home: "7.5 MILLION VENTS."

Response: 7.5 million people needing ventilators sometime does not mean that 7.5 million ventilators are needed all at once. This assumes that all of the hospitalized COVID-19 patients are sick at the same time and each needs their own machine. This is an utterly unrealistic, even an impossible scenario. The disease does not spread across the country in a day, sending nearly 8 million people to ICUs all at once. This is an blunder that builds on the prior mistakes. Don't blame her personally --  this kind of questionable math and logic seems to be sweeping the nation, sort of like a pandemic on its own.

Video @ 2:00 to 2:40: Porter explains that we only have around 100,000 ventilators in the nation. To be conservative, she assumes we actually have 150,000. With 7.5 million needed but only 150,000 available, only "0.02% [sic] of people could get a ventilator if they needed one." She then explains that this means that only 1 in 50 people could get a ventilator.

Response:  A relatively minor math error here is reporting 0.02%, which would be 2 out of 10,000 or 1 in 5,000, an utterly unreasonable number. But this is probably just due to overlooking the meaning of percentage, for 150,000 divided by 7.5 million is 0.02. As a percentage you should then say 2%, not 0.02%. Fortunately, when she then explains that 0.02% [sic] means 1 in 50, she's at least back to a correct ratio, in spite of the confusion about percentages.

The important issue here is that she claims only 1 in 50 patients who need a ventilator can get one, when this is based on the bad assumptions that have already seriously tainted her analysis. It's way off. But the worst is yet to come.

Video @ 2:40 to 2:47: "That means that 49 out of 50 are gonna die. That is scary. That should scare you. That scares me." The big, bold captions hammer this home.

Response: Her presentation is based on the assumption that those who get ventilators live and those who don't will die. Even back in early March, it was becoming clear that many or most COVID patients on ventilators died. Ventilators are a last resort for desperate cases and often don't do any good. A more fair comparison would involve the number of seriously ill patients who will die without intubation versus those who will die even with intubation. Good data might not have been available for COVID-19 when she gave this presentation, but she should at least have recognized that there's still a high death rate for intubated patients even before COVID came along, and that not getting a vent is not necessarily a death sentence. There's no nuance here, all clear cut and dramatic without the caution demanded by science. Science demands a little nuance. Stirring fear, not so much.

A few weeks later, the evidence was indicating that things aren't anywhere as clear cut as Porter says. Sometimes ventilators can do more harm than good, and patients who seemingly need ventilators based on old criteria might be fine without one. See Sharon Begley, "With ventilators running out, doctors say the machines are overused for Covid-19" at StatNews.com, April 8, 2020. Now we also know that New York, said to be in dire need of more ventilators, had plenty after all.

Video @ 2:47 to 2:50: "That should scare everybody who can understand basic math."

Response: This is one of the most accurate and fitting statements made, but in an ironic way. What she is saying in this video should alarm those who can understand basic math and see through the errors, with the biggest and scariest yet to come. It is frightening to see how much fear, panic, and self-imposed harm on this nation is being spread through fearmongering and a failure to do the math and consider the science.

Video @ 2:55 to 3:17: "The doctors have to choose who that 1 in 50 is. Can you imagine?" She suggests that doctors will tell people that since they once had cancer or some other disease, that they "are not worth saving." She also suggests that doctors will be force to let people over 80 die, "because that's that they are doing in Italy right now."

Response: Calm, authoritative fearmongering. That's a harsh word, and she may just be reflecting what's she gathering from other sources, but it's still a reasonable term. Creating a horrific worst-case scenario, based on flawed math and bad assumptions, and then driving it home in an emotional way, is fearmongering. Scary and effective, but not accurate.

As for assuming Italy's crisis would be ours, that's again unfair given their much older population. As for the claim that Italy was choosing not to treat elderly people, that may not be completely accurate, either. USA Today's fact check of March 20, 2020 on that Facebook rumor gives it a "false" evaluation, though I think they may have had to use triage in one overwhelmed region. But if that's not completely accurate on her part, it's a minor flaw relative to the key elements of this presentation.

Video @ 3:18 to 3:30: "Unless you want somebody to decide whether you're worth saving or your dad or your sister or your baby or your grandma, you have to do your part to prevent us from having to make thse decisions."

Response: Fearmongering that gets really personal, with a touch of added irrationality. She creates the most frightening, emotional scenario: having someone decide that your baby may have to die because the ventilator needs to go to someone else. By March, it was already abundantly clear that unlike the regular flu, COVID-19 is remarkably gentle on the young. The risk for infants and children is very close to ZERO. Even if there were only 1 ventilator in the country, it's not reasonable to stir up fears that maybe your baby is going to be selected by heartless doctors to die unless we shut down our economy, shut down the schools, and force people to cower at home. This is just fearmongering that goes beyond a mere lack of nuance. Does she not know that the young have virtually no risk? It's fair to worry about grandma, though,  and it's wise to encourage grandma to stay home, wear a mask, wash her hands, and be careful about visitors. But that's not her message at all.

Video @ 3:35 to 4:21: She discusses the meaning of flattening the curve. She shows how cases can increases exponentially and create a curve where the number of patients exceeds the fixed capacity of the healthcare system. She shades the portion of the curve above the dotted line showing the capacity, and then tells us what happens to all those in the region above the curve: "If we don't do anything, without protective measures, we're going to end up up here, above the ability to take care of everybody. What that means is that all these people, and probably more, die. They die. Because we don't have ventilators for them. And we have to start playing Russian roulette of who's gonna get saved."

Response: As discussed above, a ventilator for pneumonia or other respiratory diseases does not make a 100% plain-and-simple difference between dying or living. If you need a ventilator, you may still die and with COVID-19, it seems that most on ventilators still die. Not getting one if someone things you need it also does not mean you won't survive. "They die," end of story, is a dramatic oversimplification.

Video @ 4:21 to 4:46: Social distancing and protecting measures are discussed. She acknowledges the frustration of social distancing, not going out of the house except for groceries, having schools cancelled, of having to home school and work from home.

Response: Reasonable comments. (No mention of people losing jobs or the many adverse consequences of lockdowns and the ensuing economic devastation, but that has taken time for people to just begin to appreciate.)

Video @ 4:47 to 5:46: This is a key moment. We cut forward in her presentation to a scene with new numbers on her easel that aren't explained. The numbers show what must be the mortality rate for infected patients by age groups, increasing sharply with age. For those over 80 years old, the mortality rate is listed as 14.8%. At the bottom of the pad is a huge number: 47 million. She says, "There's a million reasons to be angry and just think this whole thing sucks because it does. But what really sucks is losing 47 million people."



Response: The "basic math" here is not explained, and maybe it's best that the methodology was cut to just focus on the fear. But it seems that she or someone she's following has taken the 14.8% mortality rate for those over 80, maybe turned it into the 14.5% number written below,  and applied that to the entire US population of 331 million, and generously rounding down to 47 million. That's right, 47 million.

So after all the math errors and faulty assumptions before, now we get the granddaddy of them all. We are faced with this terrifying, gargantuan number of 47 million people who will die if we don't do strict lockdowns, and it seems to be based on assuming that the terrible COVID death rate statistics for the most vulnerable age group, those few who are over 80 years old, suddenly applies not just to the 150 million who might eventually get infected, but to the entire population, eradicating one out of every six people. This is not just a slip of the tongue when she meant to say something like 470,000 people or something. She spoke it and has it written down. We are at risk of losing 47 million if we don't comply and obey the experts in white robes who can do basic math much better than the rest of us.

The whole pandemic panic got started with a discredited model from Imperial College that predicted 2.2 millions deaths in the US if we didn't take strong measured. That was wildly off. I just can't fathom how she or whoever provided her these numbers got 47 million and would use it in this presentation.

Breathtaking! Sadly, I couldn't find a single comment from hundreds made that pointed out the this bizarre and ridiculous gaffe and the other massive flaws in basic math, logic, and science in this video.

Incidentally, as a very minor point, the 14.8% mortality rate for 80+ may have been reported early on, but at least by the end of March a lower rate was being reported: 7.8% for the 80+ group. I think around 8% is still considered reasonable for that high-risk age group.

Wait, one last possibility to rescue this: could the 47 million be global deaths? Could that explain this huge number of deaths she's thinking about? No, I'm afraid not. See the next section below.

Video @ 4:57 to 5:24: "I'm doing my part. I'm also just listening to what I'm being told by the experts." "If you care about anybody other than yourself, including -- especially -- these 47 million Americans, that you will also do the same and just not complain about it."

Response: The math leaves me speechless. Such unjustified fear. But her message continues to be the message of many: "1. Trust the experts and do what you are told. 2. If you complain, you don't care about others. You're a bad person."

Conclusion: There's more to this painful video than just some bad math to poke at. She seems like a passionate, intelligent, eloquent, and sincerely concerned medical doctor, and I'm sorry that there are so many gaping flaws that need to be pointed out. Perhaps much of this is sharing things she heard from the media rather than checking assumptions and math herself, so don't blame here. These same kind of things are being shared and said from many sources.

At the time she made this video, we were being told we were just flattening the curve for a couple of weeks and that's all. She mentions that in this final section, also, that it's just two to four weeks. But the goal of flattening the curve and avoiding the overwhelming of hospitals was achieved, yet long past March we were being told in many places to continue cowering, that it's "cavalier" to send kids back to school, that we must have slow, gradual plants that might take many months of strict criteria before it's safe to buy things anywhere but Walmart and liquor stores, and that whatever the increasingly huge costs of the lockdown, it's "worth it if we save only one life," as Governor Cuomo put it, neglecting the cost in lives that is increasingly becoming apparent from many of the neglected side effects of this terrible cure in which the young and healthy with very low risk are locked up and the vulnerable were not properly protected (at least in New York and some other places), and in which everything from the media and some politicians seems focused on driving the message of "be afraid, shut up, and comply or you don't care about others."

I fear that education in basic math and independent thinking must simply be widely lacking in our educational system. If someone with a  lab coat and a stethoscope around their neck tells you something, do you feel compelled to believe and comply, or do you have the ability to question and push back when something is said that just doesn't make sense? I suggest more of us should be willing to ask tough questions.

Excessive fear of COVID-19 has been used to force religious groups to stop meeting, even to the point of not allowing drive-in services. It's been used to create a spirit of fear and trembling among many, including children who are really not at risk. The CDC's current estimate of the overally mortality rate is around 0.26% when asymptomatic cases are included, which make it's maybe twice as bad as what we face in most flu seasons, but does it really merit this level of fear and trembling? Does it merit prolonged lockdowns and insistence that we can't go back to normal until a vaccine is available -- when this class of virus doesn't appear to have any examples of successful vaccines, and when other viruses like HIV don't have vaccines yet after nearly 40 years of serious effort? The fear that most people are accepting is not nearly as science based as they have been led to believe. It's time to ask tougher questions and not lose complete sight of the overall welfare of our nation and our young people. Look at the many unhealthy side effects of the lockdowns and the many deaths that will follow the self-inflicted economic wounds we are creating. It's a time for thinking and asking better questions. It's a time to really do the math -- but carefully.


Related news:
  • A leaked internal report from the German government is leading many Germans to question the wisdom of their relatively mild lockdowns. Many are suspecting that the official narrative behind the panic has been exaggerated. Germany seems to have had some related "bad math" problems.
  • 500 doctors sign a letter to the President warning that the lockdowns are doing more harm than good. The media is downplaying this as just a bunch of Trump supporters playing politics. The concern for lost lives and ruined health should not be so callously dismissed. 
  • Oxford's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine published a report on March 17 on global  COVID-19 data, "Global Covid-19 Case Fatality Rates." While this has been updated several times since then, it has long given us clear information that can help counter the urge to panic. "Taking account of historical experience, trends in the data, increased number of infections in the population at largest, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths gives a presumed estimate for the COVID-19 IFR somewhere between 0.1% and 0.41%."
  • CDC's latest estimates on mortality rates also gives much lower numbers than those used to create the panic over COVID-19. Their 0.4% number does not reflect the impact of asymptomatic cases, which may further reduce the effective rate. Still worse than the flu in most years, but not wildly so. It's a deadly disease, certainly, especially for the elderly and those with severe health problems already. Perhaps we should focus on protecting those that are are risk and let the rest of the population leave their quarantine and get back to school, work, church, beaches, whatever. Just a thought.


Continue reading at the original source →]]>Sat, 14 Jun 2014 12:40:00 -0700tag:nothingwavering.org,2009-01-12:_50377Sixteen Small Stones: The Parable of the Painful Patienthttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Sixteen-Small-Stones-LDS/~3/0uGRPuo8cT8/noreply@nothingwavering.org (No Reply)J. Max WilsonLaocoon_Pio-Clementino

There once was a man who developed severe abdominal pain. He tried the normal remedies but nothing seemed to help. So he got on the Internet and began to look up information about his symptoms. Based on his reading he decided that his pain was being caused by appendicitis.

He went to the doctor and told her that he had appendicitis and needed an immediate appendectomy. The doctor performed some standard tests. “Appendicitis can sometimes be very difficult to diagnose until it becomes severe,” she said. So the doctor had the man undergo an ultrasound. But the results were inconclusive. The doctor hypothesized that the pain might be caused by an intestinal virus and sent the man home with some pain medication.

But the pain didn’t stop.

The man was convinced that it must be appendicitis. He posted some messages in online forums and several people who had suffered appendicitis said that his pain sounded exactly like what they had experienced.

The man returned to the doctor and demanded an appendectomy.

“We will perform some more tests,” said the doctor.

When the test results came back, the doctor called the man, who was still in terrible pain. “Our tests show that you have a Streptococcus bacterial infection– more commonly called Strep Throat.”

The man was incredulous. “That’s ridiculous,” he replied. “My throat doesn’t hurt! It’s my appendix! I’m going to die unless I get an appendectomy!”

“Sometimes strep causes abdominal pain. An appendectomy won’t solve the problem,” said the doctor. “What you need is antibiotics.”

“Antibiotics?!” screamed the man. ‘You told me earlier that it was a viral infection and the pills you gave me didn’t do anything! You were wrong then, why should I trust you now?! You’re just one of those doctors that over-prescribes antibiotics for everything and helps ruin their effectiveness by creating superbugs. I’ve read all about it on science news websites and on television!”

The man stormed out in a huff.

The doctor took out her notebook and wrote, “Even though the pain is authentic, it doesn’t qualify the one in pain to correctly diagnose its cause nor does it mean that the remedy he demands is correct.”

See also:

The Parable of the Offensive Remedy

Théodule-Augustin-Ribot-The-Good-Samaritan

 


Continue reading at the original source →]]>Wed, 06 Nov 2013 12:25:00 -0800tag:nothingwavering.org,2009-01-12:_47069The Millennial Star: Peter Drucker and the Sickness of Governmenthttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMillennialStar/~3/i5l9Bd7EN24/noreply@nothingwavering.org (No Reply)rameumptomContinue reading →

Peter Drucker and the Sickness of Government is a post from: The Millennial Star


Continue reading at the original source →]]>Wed, 03 Apr 2013 09:30:00 -0700tag:nothingwavering.org,2009-01-12:_42825The Millennial Star: The Parable of the Offensive Remedyhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheMillennialStar/~3/ubfTzw0JUfo/noreply@nothingwavering.org (No Reply)J. Max WilsonContinue reading →

The Parable of the Offensive Remedy is a post from: The Millennial Star


Continue reading at the original source →]]>Wed, 03 Apr 2013 06:30:00 -0700tag:nothingwavering.org,2009-01-12:_42823Sixteen Small Stones: The Parable of the Offensive Remedyhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Sixteen-Small-Stones-LDS/~3/qlW26M4YZ8Y/noreply@nothingwavering.org (No Reply)J. Max WilsonFor the kingdom of heaven is likened unto an hospital. And behold great plagues came upon the land, and the people were brought low by all manner of sickness; some with the pox, some with fevers, some with the palsy.

Théodule-Augustin-Ribot-The-Good-Samaritan

Therefore with great lore and wortcunning the master physician prepared remedies of bitter herbs and strong tonics. And so great was the number of the sick that the master physician called servants and sent them forth to carry the prescribed elixirs unto the sick that they might be healed.

And the servants delivered the elixir unto a man, and he refused it saying, behold, the smell thereof is offensive and the taste bitter; I will not partake. And by and by the man died cursing the physician, and all his household also.

And the servants delivered the elixir unto another, and the man said, behold, the smell thereof is offensive and the taste bitter; therefore will I dilute the elixir with all manner of pleasant liquors and honey until it is not offensive to the smell nor bitter to the taste. And lo, having diluted the strength of the elixir, by and by the man died cursing the physician, and all his household also.

And behold the servants delivered the elixir unto a man, and the man said, behold, the smell thereof is exceedingly offensive and the taste exceedingly bitter; nevertheless he received it and partook with great thanks. And by and by the man was healed, and all his household also.

And he praised the physician with great praise.

And again the servants delivered the elixir unto a man, and the man received and partook of it also. And by and by the man was healed, and all his household. And it came to pass thereafter that his neighbor fell sick and all his house. And seeing his neighbor’s sickness the man said, behold the elixir which was delivered unto me by the servants of the physician is offensive to the smell and bitter to the taste, therefore I will not give thereof unto my neighbor lest he be offended by it and cut me off. And behold, by and by his neighbor died, and all his household also.

And it came to pass that the the man’s other neighbor fell sick and all his house. And the man said, lo, I will give unto my neighbor of the elixir which was prepared by the master physician, but behold, the smell thereof is offensive and the taste bitter, therefore will I dilute it first with pleasant liquors and honey, lest my neighbor be offended by it and cut me off. And he gave it unto his neighbor, and lo, having diluted the strength of the elixir, by and by his neighbor died cursing the physician, and all his household also.

And behold, the man had an other neighbor and he fell sick also and all his house. And the man gave unto his neighbor of the elixir which had been prepared by the physician. And lo, the neighbor refused it, saying, behold, the smell thereof is exceedingly offensive and the taste exceedingly bitter; I will not partake. And the neighbor was offended and cut off the man. And by and by his neighbor died cursing the physician, and all his household also.

And they lamented the dead with great sorrow.

 


Continue reading at the original source →]]>Wed, 01 Jun 2011 23:31:00 -0700tag:nothingwavering.org,2009-01-12:_29216(Gay) Mormon Guy: For Better or Worse... In Sickness... and Depressionhttp://gaymormonguy.blogspot.com/2011/06/for-better-or-worse-in-sickness-and.htmlnoreply@nothingwavering.org (No Reply)David
I remember my curiosity being piqued... it makes sense that the mind and body follows discrete patterns... but is there an actual way to track them, outside of the stuff that girls do? I definitely wondered if there was anything real about biorhythms, and tossed myself headfirst.

The first problem I ran into was inherent bias - the placebo effect. If I chart my own biorhythm, it's much more likely to become true if I think it's a plausible explanation for mental, spiritual, physical, or emotional health. And it's more likely to be false if I disbelieve it in the first place. Unfortunately, I've never had the opportunity to have someone else track my moods and performance over time and match them to my "official" biorhythm according to the normal equations... but ultimately that's not totally relevant. What my teacher was trying to explain was the importance of understanding when to fly and when to fall back - the natural ups and downs of life and how to best use them.

I hit a massive down this week. On a bunch of levels. All at once. It would have been the bottom of all my biorhythms - the day that the charts told me to stay inside and plan nothing important. It was Memorial Day. So I found myself feeling like my head would explode, my brain turn to mush, and my whole body would freeze (wrapped in a dozen blankets), while simultaneously having to cancel holiday plans because I couldn't stop crying. Craziness. My depression has ceased to really be detrimental on my overall attitude, but it still makes me wonder about it all. The thought was more than a little absurd - here I am, able to tell my body to do pretty much anything I want, and yet I find myself crying for absolutely no reason and totally unable to stop. And when I've been crying for hours, posting and responding to comments is no longer at the top of my list.

Something this had made me wonder about is the huge amount of uncertainty that will come when I eventually find a wife. I probably won't find someone as messed up as I am (since the blog here at (Gay) Mormon Guy doesn't even scratch the surface of my problems)... but everyone faces trials. Everyone has difficulties. And everyone has things the Lord has or will ask them to consecrate beyond their personal will. I guess I just wonder what those things will be like for the girl I'll someday marry. What's her story of learning to trust and rely on God? Of coming to know who He is? Of finding peace in the doctrines of the gospel as they bring perspective to everything in life? How did she realize that all things, even potentially complicated or hard things like same-sex attraction, can be for our good and give us experience if we "endure it well," "love God... and serve Him"?

Someday I'll find a girl to marry. And we'll promise to each other and to God to love and support each other - whether or not health comes... Whether or not our dreams come true. We'll make the commitment, and rely on the Lord, finding peace and hope and happiness in the truth that the gospel brings each day.

Continue reading at the original source →]]>Sat, 22 Jan 2011 14:58:00 -0800tag:nothingwavering.org,2009-01-12:_26098(Gay) Mormon Guy: It Gets Betterhttp://gaymormonguy.blogspot.com/2011/01/it-gets-better.htmlnoreply@nothingwavering.org (No Reply)David
I asked God a similar question while writhing in more pain than I thought possible Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday of this week. I take extremely good care of my body... far beyond most "health-conscious" people. So when I prayed for guidance and felt strongly that I needed to treat my symptoms naturally, I was willing to adopt an extremely rigorous regime... but I also expected it to help. But when I prayed for help, the pain didn't go away. Not in the five minutes afterward, or even five hours of five full days. It didn't go away with a blessing. But in the blessing it promised that, if I did the right things, it would get better... and that gave me hope. 

People thought I was crazy. Some wondered why I didn't take the easy way out - surgery - and instead followed the prompting I had received. But, through it all, I knew, from God, that it would work out in the end. When I wondered if it was worth fasting for days and still being in pain, I remembered those words. It will get better. When friends tried to convince me I was wrong, I remembered. It will get better. When I lay in bed staring at the ceiling for hours on end, willing time to tick by as I missed social plans and life zoomed around me, I remembered. It will get better. And as I knelt throwing up the half-glass of water I had tried to drink, plus what felt like the walls of my stomach, tears running down my face from the pain, I remembered. It will get better.

One of my favorite songs growing up was "Tomorrow" from the musical Annie. The lyrics have a haunting reality to be sung by a girl who, even with a hard-knock life, can't truly understand their meaning...

"The sun will come out tomorrow... bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow ther'll be sun...
"Just thinking about tomorrow clears away the cobwebs and the sorrow till there's none...
"When I'm stuck with a day that's gray and lonely,
"I just stick out my chin, and grin, and say. 'The sun will come out tomorrow, so you gotta hang on till tomorrow, come what may!'
"Tomorrow! Tomorrow! I love you, Tomorrow - you're always a day away."

That's at least one reason that the Lord let me get sick beyond belief this week - so that He could re-teach me this lesson. It is worth it. It will always be worth it. And, if I am willing to do what is right, it will get better. It may take a lifetime of tomorrows, and a lifetime of painful, working todays. It probably means doing things much harder than bedrest and fasting for 5 days straight, and in the moment I will have pain much worse than acute appendicitis. But God is at my side. He knows what I am going through... and has felt my pain. He knows what I need to help me to humble myself and come unto Him, today, so that tomorrow I can be a better servant in His kingdom - far better than I ever imagined, tested and strengthened by far greater trials than I ever would have desired.

So is it worth it? Does it ever get better?

Yes... in the Lord's way.

I want to be normal - like everyone else. He wants me to be like Him. I want to be free of pain. He wants me to be invincible - that nothing could ever hurt me. I want to be loved and be in love. He wants me to love all men completely and unconditionally. I want to live my life in peace. He wants me to live my life as a testimony of His grace. In all the things I ask, He gives me what I need and the strength to do His will... and as I come closer to Him, I grow stronger and gain His perspective, and it gets better.

The attractions (and lack thereof for women), in my case, are still here. The urges and temptations still strike me. The feelings of absolute and total isolation and depression still hit like a ton of bricks, tossing aside my plans and dreams like chaff in a flood. But as I have turned to God and truly had faith in Him, my strength to weather my trials has increased. I can better understand the attractions, fight the temptations, and live through the depression and isolation because I, like the prophets of old, have hope that my life, and the world, can get better, tomorrow.

"Wherefore, whoso believeth in God might with surety hope for a better world..." (Ether 12:4).

I woke up this morning for the first time in a week without a burning fever and pain in my side. I slept through the night and finally felt the last vestiges of pain disappear. I am well - completely and fully healed from a medical condition that, without surgery, usually results in death. And so when I walked outside and saw the sun rising, it was with tears in my eyes as I realized the promise God was making to me in the rest of my life. I may have to pass through pain, sorrow, loneliness, and despair. The world and Heavens may seem stacked against me. But, if I will follow Him, someday the clouds will clear. Someday my dreams will come true. Someday the pain will disappear, surpassed by joy beyond belief. He is in charge, and He knows what He is doing. It gets better.

Continue reading at the original source →]]>Tue, 18 Jan 2011 17:28:00 -0800tag:nothingwavering.org,2009-01-12:_25932(Gay) Mormon Guy: Healing Power of the Priesthoodhttp://gaymormonguy.blogspot.com/2011/01/healing-power-of-priesthood.htmlnoreply@nothingwavering.org (No Reply)David
Finally last night, as I was crying in my bed, praying for help, I realized I should get a blessing. I called out for help, and two of the guys I live with came to the rescue. In the blessing they promised me that my pain, and the sickness, would leave quickly through my faith. They left, and the pain was still there, but I felt more able to deal with it. My mind hadn't been working, and so I hadn't thought about it much... and realized that it was an intense, throbbing pain in my lower right abdomen and back - right where it should be for appendicitis. My symptoms matched almost exactly. Nausea, intense pain, vomiting, fever...

I love the people who are doctors, but I have very strong feelings about, and against, many of the western methodologies for treating illness. I didn't want to go to the hospital. On the other hand, I wanted the pain to go away. So I told the Lord that if the pain didn't go away after 5 minutes, I would go to the hospital. After about 2 minutes He told me to take some pain reliever. Ironic - I rarely take medications, so that hadn't even crossed my mind. I crawled to the medicine cabinet, pulled out two acetaminophen and ibuprofen tablets, swallowed them, and restarted the countdown. Within 10 minutes I was asleep.

Looking at the struggles I face in life, the Lord has often uses this method of teaching me. He promises me that it will work out, then makes tools available to help me succeed. Sometimes I'm dumb... And assume that everything will work out without trying every available source to fight it... but God expects me to take advantage of everything in order for Him to answer my prayers. With being attracted to guys, and not attracted to girls, it means never giving up, even if it seems like nothing is happening. I go on dates, pray for help, and live my life in the way He would want me to.

I'm still in incredible pain. But I'll be okay - both physically and spiritually. My stomach and my heart seem to be ready to burst. But the Lord has promised that the pain will go away... and whether it means that I will be strong enough to subdue it, or that it will disappear entirely, doesn't really matter. I may just need willpower, faith, and pain reliever to weather my trials as my spirit and body grow stronger. Appendicitis has been cured naturally by others through fasting, and the Lord gives me the strength to live, love, and be happy even when life hurts. I'm grateful to see His hand in my life... and for the reminder that everything in this life is just an instant in the eternities.

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